Israel's extreme right-wing Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman, gave his usual response to a crisis in the Israeli government yesterday: an aggressive speech denouncing all and sundry. He poured cold water on the 300,000 Israeli protesters. However, he reserved particular venom for the planned Palestinian protests in September. He said:
PA is planning violence and bloodshed on a scale that has yet to have been seen here. The more they talk about their wish to operate in the diplomatic arena, the more I see preparations for violence and bloodshed.
There's just one problem. Everything he says is a lie. The Palestinians are organizing non-violent protests to support their bid for recognition at the UN in September. Lieberman is issuing predictions of massive violence in order to create a self-fulfilling prophecy and generate crisis to distract Israelis from protesting against their own government.
What are the Palestinians actually doing?
The Palestinian Authority is calling for massive, non-violent protests in September:
"I insist on popular resistance and I insist that it be unarmed popular resistance so that nobody misunderstands us. We are now inspired by the protests of the Arab Spring, all of which cry out 'peaceful', 'peaceful'," (PM Abbas) said.
Jailed Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti echoed this call:
Jailed leader Marwan Barghouti has called on Palestinians to stage mass rallies in September in support of a diplomatic bid to gain UN membership for a state of Palestine.
Barghouti, a figure widely respected among many Palestinians, said taking the statehood quest to the United Nations was part of a new strategy that would open the door to "peaceful, popular resistance".
In fact, the PA ordered its own security forces to prevent Palestinian violence against Israelis:
The Palestinian Authority has ordered its security forces to prevent demonstrations planned for September from escalating into violent confrontations with Israel, especially in potential friction points like the roadblocks and settlements.
Senior Palestinian Authority figures issued the orders to the Palestinian security forces in recent weeks out of concern that there may be violent clashes between thousands of Palestinian demonstrators and Israel Defense Forces at the end of September, following a vote at the United Nations General Assembly for recognition of a Palestinian state.
Is this all just propaganda? Leading Israeli experts say NO. A report by a key Israeli Knesset committee concluded that Palestinian violence was unlikely:
An internal Israeli parliamentary report shows Israel doesn't anticipate violence around a symbolic UN endorsement of Palestinian independence expected next month, but it proposes reserve soldiers be called up just in case.
The report, based on Israeli intelligence assessments, was drafted for parliament's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. It was presented to the committee on Wednesday.
Israeli military chief Gantz, concluded the same thing, noting:
He said the IDF expects thousands of non-violent protesters to flood Israel’s borders and settlements in protest.
Nonetheless, Israel is preparing for major violence:
- The government is planning to call up reserves.
- The Israeli government is stockpiling anti-crowd weaponry including Federal" rifles mounted on vehicles, at least 17 vehicles with water spraying systems, electroshock taser guns, a large amount of gas grenades, helmets and protective gear, and the "star" acquisition: "the skunk" – a strong-scented substance which causes nausea and vomiting.”
- Lieberman's aggressive rhetoric constantly predicting violence, though even he notes the issue is large numbers of protesters, not Palestinians plans for violence.
"When you prepare a demonstration in which tens of thousands will storm the Kalandia checkpoint, you can just imagine what would happen if 30 or 40 thousand people try to forcefully enter Israel. How are soldiers and officers supposed to react?" he wondered.
Some of the Israeli government's reaction is simple contingency planning. However, Lieberman's rhetoric is not. It is designed to increase tension in events and actually lead to the violence it is predicting. Why would he do this? Lieberman clearly hope violence will undermine the Palestinian cause in the UN. But more importantly, Israeli governments have a long history of distracting the population from domestic issues by generating foreign crises. As the Israeli economic protests top 350,000 protesters in the streets in a single night, and as Netanyahu complains "government can't satisfy everyone," the Israeli government really needs the distraction.
By triggering violence against the Palestinians in September, the current right-wing Israeli government plans to use a foreign crisis to distract the population from their anger at the government.
There is even a tell in the Israeli government's economic planning:
The group will examine reducing taxes, improving access to social services and increasing market competitiveness, Netanyahu said.
They are scheduled to present recommendations to Netanyahu in September.
The Netanyahu government plans to put the Israeli protesters off for another month with committees to analyze how to make things better. But once that tactic runs out, Netanyahu will need another tactic to distract the people. It is easy to see what that tactic will be.
I hope Israeli citizens and foreign observers will recognize that Palestinians are planning peaceful protests in support of their legitimate right for an independent state. Attempts to predict violence are coming solely from the most right-wing members of the Israeli government. Those predictions are in fact attempts to trigger violence to distract Israeli citizens and the world from the difficulties the current government is facing.
Please join in the call for all protests in Israel and Palestine and all governmental reaction to protests: Peaceful, peaceful.