Egypt appears to be moving troops for a major offensive against "Al Qaeda" in the Sinai Peninsula.
Egypt targets al-Qaida-linked militants in Sinai
The Egyptian army has deployed thousands of troops to the Sinai peninsula as part of a major operation against al-Qaida-inspired militants, two senior military officials said Friday.
The soldiers, backed by armored vehicles and commandos, have moved into the northern Sinai city of el-Arish and will target Islamist extremists in the cities of Rafah, Sheikh Zawiyed and other areas in central Sinai, the officials said on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to brief the media.
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The official said a military operation was imminent "to deter these armed groups."
"Units from the 2nd infantry division, with support from general security and the border guards," would take part in the operation, said the secretary general for North Sinai governorate, Gaber al-Araby.
Several items are worth noting here:
First, the use of the tag "Al Qaeda" is just a distraction here, as it is in most other places. It is a name used by radicals to conjure up a sense of power, and used by governments as an excuse for any behavior it cares to inflict in a crackdown. Egypt is moving to rein in the Bedouin tribes of the Sinai, which have long been neglected by the central government, and have long been agitating for more autonomy. Additionally, Islamic militants are active in the Sinai (a recent assault by militants lead to five people killed), but it is not really clear that these militants have any Al Qaeda links, or even that they exist as a separate expression from the Bedouin tribes. The Islamic militancy and the Bedouin nationalism are likely very closely related.
Second, Israel. Egypt's 1979 treaty with Israel prevents it from deploying troops in most of the Sinai. Therefore, if Egypt truly is moving thousands of troops, then it must have obtained the collusion of Israel, particularly since this offensive is said to be planned all the way to Rafah on the Palestinian border. Israel has some strong interests in seeing Egypt regain control of the Sinai, particularly in reducing Bedouin smuggling in Gaza, which has been under Israeli siege for going on five years now. Additionally, the natural gas pipeline which has supplied Israel with 40% of its gas needs has been attacked five times in recent months, and has been shut down for long stretches.
Now here is where it gets complicated: the Bedouin are very likely the party doing the attacks. However, the Egyptian government doesn't actually dislike the attacks. It hates the gas contract with Israel, which was signed by the corrupt Mubarak family (for which they are currently under investigation for bribery), and sells Egyptian gas at far below market price to Israel. The Egyptian government is happy to keep selling, but wishes Israel to pay full price. Hence the attacks make a convenient excuse for Egypt to stop deliveries and put pressure on Israel.
Finally, there is the position of the US. The US officially supports the transition of Egypt to democracy. However, in reality, the US supports the ruling military junta, fears the Muslim Brotherhood, and is pushing Egypt to keep everything happy with Israel. Notably, the USAID director in Egypt abruptly resigned yesterday over US support for pro-democracy organizations in Egypt, which many view as US interference in that democracy process.
Overall, it remains to be seen if the Egyptian military really is moving sharply in the Sinai, and if they intend to confront the real power there (the Bedouin tribes) as opposed to making a quick show of force and departing. A major move could have profound repercussions. Either way, Egypt is certainly coordinating with both the US and Israel.